Minimum Wages in Dualistic Labor Markets
Abstract
I leverage the dual variation in Indian minimum wage regulations across states and sectors to examine their impact on workers' wages and employment outcomes. Using text-analysis models, I construct a comprehensive database of state-sector minimum wages in India and integrate it with individual-level data from a nationally representative labor force survey. To conduct causal analysis, I apply a continuous two-way fixed effects (difference-in-difference) model, enabling me to assess the effects of minimum wage increases on wages and employment. The findings reveal that higher minimum wages result in significant wage gains for formal workers but lead to wage reductions for informal workers. Employment effects suggest that employers increasingly rely on informal workers to circumvent minimum wage requirements as increases in the minimum wage increase hours worked by informal workers, aligning with the dual labor market theory. These results indicate that while highly flexible minimum wages may lack clarity and fail to generate a lighthouse effect, they remain an effective mechanism for safeguarding formal-sector workers.
Interactive dashboard: Explore minimum wage variation across Indian sectors and states (2004-2019). Hover over states for details. Source: Author calculations based on original data.

